COVID-19 Regional Models for Colorado


View the most recent COVID-19 Regional Model report.

The regional epidemic models use methods similar to that used for the state-level model. Estimates are presented for the 11 Local Public Health Agency (LPHAs) regions in the state and for 7 counties within the Metro LPHA region with populations that are sufficiently large to allow for county-level estimates.

We use the model as well as COVID-19 hospital and case data to generate three measures for each region. These measures can be used to gauge the current state of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in each region.

The effective reproduction number (Re) is a measure of how rapidly infections are spreading or declining in a region.

Infection prevalence is an estimate of the portion of the population currently infected and capable of spreading infections. It can be used to gauge how risky contacts are.

Percent of population recovered from infection to date is an approximation of the proportion of the population immune to SARS-CoV-2. As the immune population grows, due to immunity or infection, the spread of infections slows.

Access previous COVID-19 State and Regional Model reports.


Local Public Health Agency Regions


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Click on the LPHA regions and counties below to access estimates from the regional model.

Note: Clear Creek, Gilpin and Jefferson counties are modeled as a single unit due to the small population of Clear Creek (9,379 residents) and Gilpin (5,924 residents) – populations too small to allow for stable estimation.


Metro LPHA Region Counties


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Download the report on the definition the local public health agency regions.

Download the documentation for the regional model.

View the code used in the regional models.